10 best predictions for college football’s Big Saturday. Which games seem to be the best bets and picks for week 7 games?
10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 7
Results so far: 41-29-1
What have you shown us?
We are halfway through the season and now have enough samples to get a good idea of the quality of these teams.
This week, I’m staying away from games that don’t look right to me and going with what we know. Oh no, trap games. You don’t fool me like you did with Oklahoma who got a ton of points last week.
I would love to go with Bama. Pick against the ATS Tide when everyone else takes a layup — like last week against Texas A&M — and go with them when the world questions greatness. However, I’m not 100% sure Tennessee can’t pull this off. I stay away.
I know what Clemson is, and I love giving Florida State only 3.5, but something is wrong. FSU might have the right mix at home.
So with that in mind, it’s about what we’ve been able to see, what we know, and what, for the most part, we can prove.
In other words, it’s time to go with the annual bit.
You are a good person. You pay your taxes, keep the toilet seat down, and tip generously. You do things the right way, and that’s why you deserve these 10 picks.
If they don’t work, it’s not our fault. Any wrong call here means something has gone wrong in the matrix – like Nevada-Colorado State last week; more on that later – so with that, we start with the only total points pick of the week…
Click on each game for preview
TOTAL POINTS 73
I shouldn’t have to tell you right now what to do with a point total around 35, a gap of 50 or more, or a point total over 70.
As I will keep repeating, it’s really, really, really hard for two teams to get past 70. One team could be crazy, there could be a slew of turnovers, a starting quarterback could have the sniffles, whatever.
The advice is to always take the underside, enjoy the game, and if it tops out, you’ve paid for the fun of an entertaining shootout.
Start with this – Washington is back home. Let’s just assume the team will find some semblance of D after a disastrous two-game road trip to UCLA and Arizona State. It’s very, very doubtful he’ll give up 40 to the Wildcats.
Arizona was only rocked when the turnovers poured in — three against Mississippi State, California and Oregon — but Washington’s D is hit-or-miss on the takeaway. The UW O should hit 40, the D should drop 20, and that should push to 70 and stall.
LINE Ole Miss -15
ATS CHOICE Ole Miss
This spot worked just for the Georgia ATS pick over Auburn last week, so I’m rolling with it. Still with this week’s theme…
What do we know? Auburn can’t score.
He hasn’t topped 17 in over a month, it’s putting too much pressure on an otherwise solid defense, and things are starting to slide.
Ole Miss’s offense may have struggled to put Tulsa and Kentucky away, but the running game was wonderful and the defense was incredibly good.
Considering Auburn’s run defense is flailing, and knowing the offense will have to go against type to get past 17, Ole Miss scoring 33 or more for the fourth time in five games should work.
Again, with what we know so far…
LINE Cal -15
ATS CHOICE cal
I say. I KNOW. I agree. It’s scary to buy Cal considering he struggled against UNLV, was just dropped by Washington State 28-9 and only has one great performance in a 49-31 win. against Arizona.
We will get through this together.
What has Colorado shown you to suggest they can stay with anyone, let alone a decent team like Cal? Granted, he had two weeks off to breathe deeply after firing head coach Karl Dorrell, but Cal was also just released.
First, the Buffs are yet to come closer to 23 in any of his five games. Second, it’s dead last in the nation at stopping third downs, dead last against the run, and it’s the second-worst team to score D. Third, it’s going to take turnovers to get there, and Cal hasn’t given up nothing in the last three games and has only made two mistakes all year.
Until that Colorado ATS train stops, we’ll stay.
Like Auburn and Colorado, there’s another team that showed you what it sounds like…
seven. Miami at Virginia Tech
ATS CHOICE Miami
Oh, I’m well aware of Miami’s ability to disappoint, and I don’t blame you one bit for staying away or going the other way here.
Over the past three weeks, the Hurricanes have developed a brutal habit of playing up or down to their opponents and then managing to lose. There’s a big reason why this time might be different.
Miami’s biggest problem is turnover, and Virginia Tech isn’t taking the ball away.
At least the rods have been close. They couldn’t stop screwing up against Middle Tennessee, and the O worked really well in the loss to North Carolina.
The Hokie defense has been too terrible the last three games. The team failed to cover 14.5 against Pitt, was rocked by 31 against North Carolina, and was knocked down by West Virginia.
Here’s the advice. Hold your nose, go with Miami, forget you made it, go do something else with your Saturday, and hope you have a nice surprise when you get home.
LINE Wisconsin -7.5
ATS CHOICE Wisconsin
There’s no reason to hold parades for anyone who beat Northwestern 42-7, but after the brutal loss to Illinois and the firing of Paul Chryst, Wisconsin might have recovered a bit under Jim Leonhard.
But this is more about the state of Michigan.
The Spartans can throw – always be wary of what decent passing plays with skill can do against Wisconsin – but the run defense has been terrible in the last three games against Minnesota, Maryland and Ohio State. Washington didn’t run on MSU in part because Michael Penix Jr. was too busy throwing nearly 400 yards.
1) Consider liking the least on the 42, but I’m not going with that just because I’m nervous the Badgers might be about to strike themselves if it all goes off the rails. 2) Michigan State hasn’t come close to 14 against anyone in the last four games, and 3) it’s one of the worst teams in the nation for time of possession.
You don’t control the ball against the Badgers, you’ll never see your O on the pitch.
Warning. Outside of a match, I’m going to make deep B-side cuts on these next few picks, starting with…